A GIS‐based climate change adaptation strategy tool

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a geographic information system (GIS)‐based risk assessment tool for visualising climate change impacts in agricultural industries and evaluating eventual adaptation strategies. Design/methodology/approach A climate change adaptation strategy tool (CCAST) with built‐in GIS capability has been developed for agricultural industries. Development of the GIS functionality within CCAST includes the implementation of map projection, boundary allocation, interpolation and a graphical display of spatial data. In total, 20 climatic and crop indices are computed alongside basic climate variables (rainfall and temperature) from downscaled global climate models at 1,062 sites across the state of New South Wales (NSW) located in eastern Australia. Findings A case study in Australia is used to demonstrate use of this tool. This shows selecting suitable genotypes of wheat is a key adaptation strategy to mitigate the impacts of climate change on wheat cropping. It shows that spring wheat genotypes will become predominate, while the winter genotypes will only be viable in clearly defined areas where sufficient days of cool temperature exist for completion of vernalisation in a future warmer climate. Originality/value CCAST integrates knowledge relevant to climate impact management in a stand‐alone environment. It benefits from statistical analysis and GIS functionalities and provides many user‐friendly GIS features to make it suitable for practitioners on the ground.