<title>IMM tracking of a theater ballistic missile during boost phase</title>

TLDR

The proliferation of theater ballistic missiles, exemplified by SCUD launches in the Gulf War, has heightened U.S. concerns and underscored the importance of detecting, tracking, and engaging these weapons during boost phase or shortly after booster cutoff. This study evaluates the performance of tracking algorithms for theater ballistic missiles during boost phase and the transition to ballistic flight. Three tracking families—alpha‑beta‑gamma, Kalman‑based, and interactive multiple model (IMM)—were compared using simulated data, with an IMM variant incorporating prior booster‑cutoff knowledge also tested on a real missile trajectory.

Abstract

Since the SCUD launches in the Gulf War, theater ballistic missile (TBM) systems have become a growing concern for the US military. Detection, tracking and engagement during boost phase or shortly after booster cutoff are goals that grow in importance with the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. This paper addresses the performance of tracking algorithms for TBMs during boost phase and across the transition to ballistic flight. Three families of tracking algorithms are examined: alpha-beta-gamma trackers, Kalman-based trackers, and the interactive multiple model (IMM) tracker. In addition, a variation on the IMM to include prior knowledge of a booster cutoff parameter is examined. Simulated data is used to compare algorithms. Also, the IMM tracker is run on an actual ballistic missile trajectory. Results indicate that IMM trackers show significant advantage in tracking through the model transition represented by booster cutoff.