Thermal Performance of a Building Envelope - A Probabilistic Approach

Abstract

A probabilistic model of the thermal performance of a building envelope is proposed. The model predicts the probability density function of the heat loss over a specified period of time on the basis of the design parameters of the house, climatic characteristics of the site as well as the air change rate due to mechanical or natural ventilation. Reliability of the heat loss performance of the building envelope components exposed to various climatic conditions is analyzed, and the probability of excessive heat loss is quantified. Different design options are considered. They involve a dynamic wall strategy and various types of building ventilation.