Extended Streamflow Forecasting Using NWSRFS

TLDR

Extended forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) via the ESP program uses conceptual hydrologic/hydraulic models to predict streamflow from current snow, soil moisture, river, and reservoir conditions combined with historical meteorological data, and was originally developed for water‑supply forecasting in snowmelt regions but also supports flood outlooks, navigation forecasts, reservoir operation, and drought risk analysis. This paper examines the theory, capabilities, and potential applications of the ESP procedure. The ESP procedure assumes past meteorological events are representative of future events, treating each year of historical data as a possible future scenario to simulate streamflow traces that can be scanned for various flow metrics, producing probabilistic forecasts for each variable and period of interest.

Abstract

Extended forecasting using the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) is done with the NWS Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) program. This paper examines the theory, capabilities, and potential applications of the ESP procedure. ESP uses conceptual hydrologic/hydraulic models to forecast future streamflow using. the current snow, soil moisture, river, and reservoir conditions with historical meteorological data. The ESP procedure assumes that meteorological events that occurred in the past are representative of events that may occur in the future. Each year of historical meteorological data is assumed to be a possible representation of the future and is used to simulate a streamflow trace. The simulated streamflow traces can be scanned for maximum flow, minimum flow, volume of flow, reservoir stage, etc., for any period in the future. ESP produces a probabilistic forecast for each streamflow variable and period of interest. The procedure was originally developed for water supply forecasting in snowmelt areas, but it can also be used to produce spring flood outlooks, forecasts for navigation, inflow hydrographs for reservoir operation, and time series needed for risk analysis during droughts.