Percolation and epidemics in a two-dimensional small world

Abstract

Percolation on two-dimensional small-world networks has been proposed as a model for the spread of plant diseases. In this paper we give an analytic solution of this model using a combination of generating function methods and high-order series expansion. Our solution gives accurate predictions for quantities such as the position of the percolation threshold and the typical size of disease outbreaks as a function of the density of "shortcuts" in the small-world network. Our results agree with scaling hypotheses and numerical simulations for the same model.