The Journal of Economic Perspectives · 1996 · 179 citations · 13 references
Social SciencesEconomicsPolitical ScienceEconometricsForecastingPolitical EconomyEconomic ForecastingElectionsElectoral BehaviorElectoral SystemsTime Series EconometricsVoting BehaviorEconometric Forecast ModelsEconometric IdentificationEconomic Impact Of EventsPredictive Econometrics
This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast.
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An Economic Theory of Democracy.
Edward C. Banfield, Anthony J. Downs · Midwest Journal of Political Science · 1958 · 18.9K citations
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