Projections of US prevalence of arthritis and associated activity limitations

TLDR

Obesity is increasingly contributing to the future burden of arthritis. The study aims to update projections of arthritis prevalence and activity limitations in US adults and to promote interventions that improve quality of life through lifestyle changes and self‑management. The authors used age‑ and sex‑specific prevalence estimates from the 2003 National Health Interview Survey and US Census population projections to model arthritis prevalence and activity limitations from 2005 to 2030. Arthritis prevalence is projected to increase from 47.8 million in 2005 to nearly 67 million by 2030 (25 % of adults), with 25 million (9.3 %) experiencing activity limitations, and more than half of cases occurring in adults over 65, while one‑third involve working‑age adults.

Abstract

Abstract Objective To update the projected prevalence of self‐reported, doctor‐diagnosed arthritis and arthritis‐attributable activity limitations among US adults ages 18 years and older from 2005 through 2030. Methods Baseline age‐ and sex‐specific prevalence rates of arthritis and activity limitation, using the latest surveillance case definitions, were estimated from the 2003 National Health Interview Survey, which is an annual, cross‐sectional, population‐based health interview survey of ∼31,000 adults. These estimates were used to calculate projected arthritis prevalence and activity limitations for 2005–2030 using future population projections obtained from the US Census Bureau. Results The prevalence of self‐reported, doctor‐diagnosed arthritis is projected to increase from 47.8 million in 2005 to nearly 67 million by 2030 (25% of the adult population). By 2030, 25 million (9.3% of the adult population) are projected to report arthritis‐attributable activity limitations. In 2030, >50% of arthritis cases will be among adults older than age 65 years. However, working‐age adults (45–64 years) will account for almost one‐third of cases. Conclusion By 2030, the number of US adults with arthritis and its associated activity limitation is expected to increase substantially, resulting in a large impact on individuals, the health care system, and society in general. The growing epidemic of obesity may also significantly contribute to the future burden of arthritis. Improving access and availability of current clinical and public health interventions aimed at improving quality of life among persons with arthritis through lifestyle changes and disease self‐management may help lessen the long‐term impact.