Unrealized Partisans, Realized Independents, and the Intergenerational Transmission of Partisan Identification

Abstract

Carmines, McIver, and Stimson (1987) argue that there has been a "dramatic change" in the intergenerational transmission of partisanship and independence and that the growth in Independents is largely accounted for by "unrealized partisans." We show that both conclusions are a function of ignoring sizable numbers of families in which parents' partisanship is indeterminate. Unrealized partisanship has been an important cause of dealignment, but it accounts for much less than the entire increase in the proportion of Independents. Moreover, transmission rates within Independent families have been consistently high; since 1964 independence has been passed on to offspring more efficiently than partisanship. The scope and usefulness of Carmines et al.'s theory is thus undermined by its failure to accommodate several types of families that made a sizable contribution to the increase in the proportion of Independents over the past 30 years.