Evaluation of high resolution rainfall forecasts over Karnataka for the 2011 southwest and northeast monsoon seasons

Abstract

ABSTRACT Evaluation of real‐time rainfall forecast at the hobli (village cluster ∼10 km 2 ) level from an atmospheric mesoscale model over Karnataka (located at southwest India, with nearly 56% of the workforce engaged in agricultural activities) for the southwest (June–September) and northeast (October–December) monsoon seasons of 2011 is presented in this study. The forecast system has been operationally implemented through data assimilation from a number of local observatories for effective applications as well as for proof of concept. A highlight of the study is the validation of the rainfall forecasts against observations at comparable resolution established by Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre, Government of Karnataka ( KSNDMC ). An evaluation of the forecast skill against daily observed rainfall is presented. A number of statistical evaluations show that the forecasts have enough skill to be useful for end users. A few areas of systematic bias and relatively higher forecast error were identified for further improvement in forecast skill.