An assessment of China’s fertility level using the variable-<i>r</i> method

Abstract

The fertility level in China is a matter of uncertainty and controversy. This paper applies Preston and Coale's (1982) variable-r method to assess the fertility level in China. By using data from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses as well as annual population change surveys, the variable-r method confirms that Chinese fertility has reached a level well below replacement.