An empirical investigation into the causes of failure of the monetary model of the exchange rate

Abstract

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to attempt to provide measures of the relative importance of the principal causes of the failure of the monetary model of the exchange rate. Secondly, the random walk hypothesis for the exchange rate is tested. The methodology employed is new and has wide application elsewhere. It involves explicitly modelling the misspecification by time series techniques. The results confirm the importance of the breakdown of the PPP assumption but they also show that misspecification of the money market is equally important. The results further show that lagged information can also improve upon the random walk model of the exchange rate.