New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury

TLDR

Recent historic lows in Arctic sea ice extent and climate model projections of further reductions have spurred speculation about new trans‑Arctic shipping routes, yet numerical studies of how these changes will affect navigation are lacking. The study analyzes seven climate model projections of sea ice under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for two vessel classes to assess future September Arctic shipping potential. The authors use these seven climate model projections of sea‑ice properties under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for two vessel classes to evaluate September Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, sea‑ice changes will expand September navigability for open‑water ships along the Northern Sea Route, open robust routes for Polar Class 6 vessels over the North Pole, and create new Northwest Passage routes for both vessel classes, with significant economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications despite other nonclimatic limits.

Abstract

Recent historic observed lows in Arctic sea ice extent, together with climate model projections of additional ice reductions in the future, have fueled speculations of potential new trans-Arctic shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. However, numerical studies of how projected geophysical changes in sea ice will realistically impact ship navigation are lacking. To address this deficiency, we analyze seven climate model projections of sea ice properties, assuming two different climate change scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5] and two vessel classes, to assess future changes in peak season (September) Arctic shipping potential. By midcentury, changing sea ice conditions enable expanded September navigability for common open-water ships crossing the Arctic along the Northern Sea Route over the Russian Federation, robust new routes for moderately ice-strengthened (Polar Class 6) ships over the North Pole, and new routes through the Northwest Passage for both vessel classes. Although numerous other nonclimatic factors also limit Arctic shipping potential, these findings have important economic, strategic, environmental, and governance implications for the region.