Partisanship, Party Coalitions, and Group Support, 1952‐2004

Abstract

Recent changes in partisan support suggest the beginning of a new group basis for the party coalitions. For the Republicans, the changes define group support more sharply than has been the case for many years—a combination of southern whites and a strong religious base of Catholics, regular church‐goers, and Protestant fundamentalists. For Democrats, the changes are defined in terms of losses—of Catholic, union household, and regular church‐going voters—not sufficiently offset by the increased support of women and the growing Hispanic population. The problem for Republicans is to maintain and enhance a heterogeneous coalition, including a fragile religious combination. The problem for Democrats is to find new coalition partners or regain support that the party has lost.