Seasonal prediction of Danube flow variability based on stable teleconnection with sea surface temperature

Abstract

It is shown that spring Danube flow anomalies are significantly related to winter SST anomalies from several key regions. These areas are identified through stable teleconnections between flow and SST. A forecast scheme is developed and applied to predict flow anomalies using SST anomalies from these key regions. Small potential predictability of winter flow anomalies from autumn sea surface temperature anomalies was also detected. The predictability of the flow anomalies from summer and autumn using SST from the previous seasons is limited by the instability of teleconnections.