Risk analysis approach to transport aircraft technology assessment

Abstract

The need to quantify uncertainty in the assessment of the costs and benefits of potential applications of advanced aircraft technology is recognized. In this paper, we present a Monte Carlo simulation approach that was successfully implemented in a recent USAF-sponsored technology assessment study. Details are given of the math model used to represent the sensitivity of aircraft performance and fleet cost-effectiveness to technology variations. The uncertainty analysis process is described, and results from the study are presented. Advantages of including risk analysis in all conceptual design studies are discussed.