Necessary Conditions for Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification as Derived from 11 Years of TRMM Data

Abstract

Abstract Rainfall and convective properties of tropical cyclones (TCs) are statistically quantified for different TC intensity change categories by using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data from December 1997 to December 2008. Four 24-h future intensity change categories are defined: rapidly intensifying (RI), slowly intensifying, neutral, and weakening. It is found that RI storms always have a larger raining area and total volumetric rain in the inner core. The maximum convective intensity in the inner core is not necessarily more intense prior to undergoing an RI episode than a slowly intensifying, neutral, or weakening episode. Instead, a minimum threshold of raining area, total volumetric rain, and convective intensity in the inner core is determined from the RI cases examined in this study. The following necessary conditions for RI are found in the inner core: total raining area > 3000 km2, total volumetric rain > 5000 mm h−1 km2, maximum near-surface radar reflectivity > 40 dBZ, maximum 20-dBZ (40 dBZ) echo height > 8 (4) km, minimum 85-GHz polarization–corrected brightness temperature (PCT) < 235 K, and minimum 10.8-μm brightness temperature < 220 K. To the extent that these thresholds represent all RI cases, they should be of value to forecasters for ruling out RI. This study finds that total lightning activities in the inner core (outer rainband) have a negative (positive) relationship with storm intensification.