Probabilistic evaluation of the effect of maintenance on reliability. An application [to power systems]

Abstract

The purpose of maintenance is to extend equipment lifetime, or at least the mean time to the next failure. While too little maintenance may have very costly consequences, maintenance, too, incurs expenditures and it may not be economical to perform it too frequently. Therefore, the two costs must be balanced. In the past, attempts to approximate this balance have often been based on trial and error. In this paper, a probabilistic model is proposed for the purpose, and a computer program based on this model is described. The model provides a quantitative connection between reliability and maintenance, a link missing in the heuristic approaches. The component ageing process is modelled, and the mean and distribution of the remaining life to failure are predicted for any stage of ageing. The method is applied to a practical example.