North Atlantic Oscillation modulates total ozone winter trends

Abstract

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is modulating the Earth's ozone shield such that the calculated anthropogenic total ozone decrease is enhanced over Europe whereas over the North Atlantic region it is reduced (for the last 30 years). Including the NAO in a statistical model suggests a more uniform chemical winter trend compared to the strong longitudinal variation reported earlier. At Arosa (Switzerland) the trend is reduced to −2.4% per decade compared to −3.2% and at Reykjavik (Iceland) it is enhanced to −3.8% compared to 0%. The revised trend is slightly below the predictions by 2D chemical models. Decadal ozone variability is linked to variations in the dynamical structure of the atmosphere, as reflected in the tropopause pressure. The latter varies in concert with the NAO index with a distinct geographical pattern.