Selection of optimal intensity measures in probabilistic seismic demand models of highway bridge portfolios

TLDR

Probabilistic seismic demand models are common for generating fragility curves for highway bridges, but their uncertainty depends on the seismic intensity measure used, and selecting an optimal IM has been a focus of many studies. This study evaluates optimal intensity measures for conditioning probabilistic seismic demand models for bridge portfolios, such as those in HAZUS‑MH, rather than single structures. The authors consider efficiency, practicality, sufficiency, and hazard computability as selection criteria, and generate models for a multi‑span simply supported steel girder bridge class using variability in geometry and material properties with synthetic and recorded ground motion suites. Among ten IMs, PGA and spectral acceleration at the fundamental period are most optimal for synthetic motions, cumulative absolute velocity is close for recorded motions, but overall PGA is chosen when hazard computability is considered, indicating that for bridge portfolios PGA should be used despite spectrally based quantities performing better for individual structures. © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Abstract

Abstract Probabilistic seismic demand models are a common and often essential step in generating analytical fragility curves for highway bridges. With these probabilistic models being traditionally conditioned on a single seismic intensity measure (IM), the degree of uncertainty in the models is dependent on the IM used. Selection of an optimal IM for conditioning these demand models is not a trivial matter and has been the focus of numerous studies. Unlike previous studies that consider a single structure for IM selection, this study evaluates optimal IMs for use when generating probabilistic seismic demand models for bridge portfolios such as would be found in HAZUS‐MH. Selection criteria such as efficiency, practicality, sufficiency, and hazard computability are considered in the selection process. A case study is performed considering the multi‐span simply supported steel girder bridge class. Probabilistic seismic demand models are generated considering variability in the geometric configurations and material properties, using two suites of ground motions—one synthetic and one recorded motion suite. Results show that of the 10 IMs considered, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at the fundamental period are the most optimal for the synthetic motions, and that cumulative absolute velocity is also a close contender when using recorded motions. However, when hazard computability is considered, PGA is selected as the IM of choice. Previous studies have shown that spectrally based quantities perform better than PGA for a given structure, but the findings of this study indicate that when a portfolio of bridges is considered, PGA should be used. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.