Seasonal prediction of European spring precipitation from El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Local sea‐surface temperatures

Abstract

Abstract The extent to which European seasonal precipitation is predictable is a topic of scientific and societal importance. Although the potential for seasonal prediction is much less over Europe than in the tropics, it is not negligible. Previous studies suggest that European seasonal precipitation skill may peak in the spring (March–April–May) period, this being the season when El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to the North Atlantic and European sector are at their strongest. Examination of the correlation significance and temporal stability of contemporaneous and lagged ENSO links to European and North African precipitation over 98 years confirms this to be the case. The strongest ENSO links are found across the central European region (45°N–55°N,35°E–5°W). These links are symmetric with the sign of ENSO. Using a linear statistical model employing temporally stable lagged ENSO and lagged local North Atlantic sea surface temperatures as predictors, we compute the forecast skill and significance of central European spring precipitation over 30 independent years. For early March forecasts our model skill is 14–18% better than climatology, which is significant at the 95% level. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society