Evaluating Small-Area Population Projections

Abstract

Abstract Methods for evaluating small-area population projections have received little attention but are critical to their development and use. A model, illustrative measures and methods for evaluating small-area projections, and examples of the evaluation process are presented. Although the accuracy of projections of future populations is impossible to determine, the internal and external consistency of the projections can be evaluated by comparing projections to the physical, socioeconomic, and demographic characteristics of the projection area; the characteristics of contextual and comparison areas; and the computational structure, parameter assumptions, and data used in the projection method.