Exploring Offence Statistics in Stockholm City Using Spatial Analysis Tools

Abstract

The objective of this article is to investigate changes since the early 1980s in offence patterns for residential burglary, theft of and from cars, and vandalism in Stockholm City using methods from spatial statistics. The findings of previous Swedish studies on crime patterns and the insights provided by different theories, notably one propounded by Wikström (1991), provide a background for this study and are briefly reviewed. The analytical elements of the article are presented in two main parts. The first consists of a brief description of methodological procedures to obtain robust estimates of small-area standardized offence ratios. Attention is paid to both the spatial framework and the method of calculating rates. Standardized offence ratios (SORs) are calculated and mapped using GIS, and the Getis-Ord statistic is used to identify areas of raised incidence. The variation in a relative risk is modeled as a function of socioeconomic variables using the linear regression model, recognizing the complications raised by the spatial nature of the data. Results suggest that while there have been no dramatic changes in the geographies of these offences in Stockholm City during the last decade, there have been some shifts both in geographical patterns and in their association with underlying socioeconomic conditions.