An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism

Abstract

This paper quantifies the impact that terrorism has had on tourism since 1970. To accomplish this task, the authors estimate a forecasting equation for a country's (region's) share of tourism using an ARIMA model with a transfer function based on the time series of terrorist attacks in the country (or region). Their results focus on three European countries--Greece, Italy, and Austria--that have experienced noteworthy terrorist attacks since 1970. The authors also calculate revenue losses for continental Europe. Since 1974 these losses are large, amounting to sixteen billion SDRs in present value terms. Much of the loss occurred in the 1980s. Copyright 1992 by WWZ and Helbing & Lichtenhahn Verlag AG