Agent-Based Simulation Model for Assessment of Financing Scenarios in Highway Transportation Infrastructure Systems

Abstract

There is an urgent need for policies to close the existing financing gap for civil infrastructure. However, identification of the desired scenarios for the closure of the financing gap is complex because there are many factors that affect investment in infrastructure. Thus, comprehensive models are required to (1) simulate the impacts of policies, and (2) identify the highly likely scenarios for desired policy outcomes. The objective of this paper is to create a simulation model for ex-ante analysis of financing policies in highway transportation infrastructure in the United States. Using the agent-based technique, this model simulates the microbehaviors of state Departments of Transportation, private institutional investors, and the public. Using the output of the simulation model, financing landscapes of the U.S. transportation infrastructure are developed. The simulated landscape is shown to be helpful in identifying the highly likely scenarios leading to a high level of investment in highway transportation infrastructure under the existing infrastructure investment structures and budget constraints in the United States. The study presented in this paper is novel with respect to (1) the application of the system-of-systems modeling in the analysis of transportation infrastructure financing policies, (2) identification of the desired policy scenarios and their likelihoods for closure of the financing gap in the presence of uncertainties and adaptive behaviors, and (3) simulation and visualization of the impacts of financing policies at the state and national levels. The model promotes a data-driven policy analysis and provides policymakers with a tool to simultaneously account for the impacts of several factors and uncertainties.