Error estimates of theoretical models: a guide

Abstract

This guide offers suggestions/insights on uncertainty quantification of\nnuclear structure models. We discuss a simple approach to statistical error\nestimates, strategies to assess systematic errors, and show how to uncover\ninter-dependencies by correlation analysis. The basic concepts are illustrated\nthrough simple examples. By providing theoretical error bars on predicted\nquantities and using statistical methods to study correlations between\nobservables, theory can significantly enhance the feedback between experiment\nand nuclear modeling.\n