Noah, Joseph, and Operational Hydrology

TLDR

Extreme precipitation exhibits the Noah and Joseph effects—short bursts of extreme rainfall and long periods of anomalous precipitation—that current statistical hydrology models fail to capture. The study proposes self‑similar models as a replacement for existing hydrology models. The authors present a series of investigations into self‑similar operational hydrology, outlining the methodology and theoretical framework. These self‑similar models successfully explain the empirical observations of Harold Edwin Hurst.

Abstract

By ‘Noah Effect’ we designate the observation that extreme precipitation can be very extreme indeed, and by ‘Joseph Effect’ the finding that a long period of unusual (high or low) precipitation can be extremely long. Current models of statistical hydrology cannot account for either effect and must be superseded. As a replacement, ‘self‐similar’ models appear very promising. They account particularly well for the remarkable empirical observations of Harold Edwin Hurst. The present paper introduces and summarizes a series of investigations on self‐similar operational hydrology.