Plausibility and probability in scenario planning

TLDR

The paper explores and reframes the long‑standing distinction between plausibility and probability in scenario planning, proposing a broader spectrum of methodological combinations that challenge the traditional either/or stance. It surveys the historical use of these terms in English and scenario planning, critically assessing confusions and offering richer combinations to expand methodological options. The authors argue that the dominant either/or positions should be replaced by a richer set of combinations, which could open new scenario‑producing methods and dissolve entrenched distinctions, though the propositions remain tentative. The study is conceptual and exploratory.

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore extant distinctions between plausibility and probability in scenario planning and re-frame the either/or stance in the literature within a broader set of methodological choice possibilities. Design/methodology/approach – The paper surveys the history of both terms in both the English language and more narrowly within scenario planning, critically assessing the confusions that have arisen. The paper questions the distinctions that have been made and offers a richer set of combinations to open up the methodological space available. Findings – The paper suggests that the either/or stances that have been dominant in the literature – and even shaped distinctions between different schools of scenario planning – must be surpassed by a richer set of combinations that open up new methodological approaches and possibilities. Research limitations/implications – This is a conceptual and exploratory paper. Therefore the findings are propositions and tentative. Practical implications – The paper opens up new ways of producing scenarios and may dissolve some of the infertile distinctions that have plagued the field to now. Originality/value – The paper dilutes distinctions that have been accepted for decades and opens up new possibilities in the scenarios field, which is growing and is now producing some 2,200 peer-reviewed articles/year in English alone as per the EBSCO database.