The Prediction of Lake Huron Lake-Effect Snowfall Systems

Abstract

Data were collected during the 1971–72 snowfall season for the Lake Huron basin. The bulk aerodynamic approach, as formulated by Priestley, was utilized to estimate the daily average flux of heat and moisture over the lake. It was hypothesized that discriminant analysis could be employed to determine the threshold value (discriminant index) of the energy flux which is necessary for the occurrence of the lake-effect snowfall system. To determine the validity of this threshold value, the discriminant index was applied to a series of historical data. The results of this analysis indicated that the discriminant index could be utilized to forecast lake-effect snowfall days.