Areas of <scp>C</scp>hina predicted to have a suitable climate for <i><scp>A</scp>noplophora chinensis</i> under a climate‐warming scenario

Abstract

Abstract A noplophora chinensis ( F orster) ( C oleoptera: C erambycidae) is an A1 class quarantine pest, native to C hina, J apan, and N orth K orea. The A . chinensis outbreak in C hina has severely affected the local environment and economic development. This study investigates potential areas in C hina with suitable climate for A . chinensis using historical climate data (1971–2000) and future climate‐warming estimates generated by CLIMEX 1.1. These future estimates are based on simulated climate data (2010–2039) provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research ( TYN SC 2.0). The results suggest that a wide area of C hina will have a climate suitable for A . chinensis , and every province may contain some suitable areas for this pest. The predicted areas are distributed primarily in central and southern China, with an estimated distribution range of 18.2–49.5°N and 81.3–135.0°E. Using a global‐warming scenario and predictions based on historical climate data, the areas in China with a climate generally suitable for A . chinensis are predicted to decline, whereas the areas that are highly suitable for A . chinensis are predicted to expand particularly to the northeast and northwest. The estimated distribution range covered 18.2–49.1°N and 73.6–135.0°E. A noplophora chinensis hosts grow in much of C hina; therefore, the pest could possibly establish this entire predicted area. These results support enhanced quarantine and control measures combined with stronger monitoring systems to prevent the spread and export of A . chinensis .