The global multisector/multicountry 3-E model GINFORS. A description of the model and a baseline forecast for global energy demand and CO<SUB align=right>2 emissions

Abstract

The paper presents the multisector/multicountry energy?economic?environment model GINFORS, which has already been used as the simulation engine in the project MOSUS of the 5th EU framework programme. The detailed description of the model features the application ability for energy forecasts and simulations. An overview of the system is given, and the structures of the multisector international trade model are depicted as well as those of the Input?Output Models (IOMs), the Macro-Models (MMs) and the energy models of the several countries. Further, the paper defines a baseline scenario with a high constant real oil price for the period 2006-2020 and derives a global forecast for energy demand, CO2 emissions and economic development with some sector and country details.