Evaluating mobility models for temporal prediction with high-granularity mobility data

Abstract

A mobility model is an essential requirement in accurately predicting an individual's future location. While extensive studies have been conducted to predict human mobility, previous work used coarse-grained mobility data with limited ability to capture human movements at a fine-grained level. In this paper, we empirically analyze several mobility models for predicting temporal behavior of an individual user. Unlike previous approaches, which employed coarse-grained mobility data with partial temporal-coverage, we use fine-grained and continuous mobility data for the evaluation of mobility models.We explore the regularity and predictability of human mobility, and evaluate location-dependent and location-independent models with several feature-aided schemes. Our experimental results show that a location-dependent predictor is better than a location-independent predictor for predicting temporal behavior of individual user. The duration of stay at a location is strongly correlated to the arrival time at the current location and the return-tendency to the next location, rather than recent k location sequences.We also find that false-positive predictions can be reduced by adaptive use of mobility models.