Decision Making in Turkish Foreign Policy: The Caspian Oil Pipeline Issue

Abstract

Being located in one of the most strategic and problematic regions of the world, Turkey has attracted the interest of foreign policy analysts from all around the world. The multi-dimensional nature of Turkish foreign policy has always provided researchers with a vast subject for research.' However, a cursory glance at existing literature on Turkish foreign policy shows that these studies have concentrated either on descriptive or historical analyses. Hardly any work has been done on the decision and policy-making mechanisms and processes of Turkish foreign policy. Thus, the central aim of the present article is to shed light on this rather neglected aspect of Turkish foreign policy in the context of the Caspian Sea oil pipelines project. Here, our main concern will be to analyse the decision and policy-making process rather than to explain Turkish foreign policy on this specific issue. The reasons for choosing the oil pipelines issue are manifold. First of all, the primary institutions involved in decisions and policy making in Turkish foreign policy have always been the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and the Turkish Armed Forces General Staff (GS). The other institutions involved in the processes have mostly assumed a secondary role. Perhaps, however, for the first time in the oil pipeline issue, beside those traditionally involved in Turkish foreign policy, others - like the Ministry of Energy and its semi-independent sub-units - have become influential in the process. In this context, we believe that the traditional decision and policy-making system of Turkish foreign policy is being challenged, and this deserves to be analysed. Second, the number of external participants involved in the oil pipeline issue is unusually big and diverse. A number of states and unofficial operators (such as the powerful oil companies) have increased the challenge which Turkish foreign policy has to face. Moreover, the oil pipeline issue has not only a political but also an economic dimension that further complicates the foreign policy environment for the Turks. The emergence of independent Turkic states in the Caucasus and Central Asia as a result of the sudden disintegration of the Soviet Union has forced Turkish policy makers to establish close political, economic, and cultural