Numerical modelling of Plio-Quaternary slope evolution based on geological constraints: a case study from the Caramanico Valley (Central Apennines, Italy)

Abstract

Abstract Evidence of deep-seated gravitational slope deformations (DSGSD) and of large prehistoric landslides is fairly widespread within the Central Apennines (Italy). These gravity-induced processes accompanied the intense Plio-Quaternary uplift phases that affected the mountain chain. In this study a multidisciplinary approach has been adopted in order to better constrain the relationship between the tectonic evolution and the gravitational morphogenesis of a typical Apennine morphostructure, such as the Caramanico Valley. For this purpose a conceptual model of the morphostructural evolution of the area has been reconstructed, on the basis of geological constraints derived by the integration of detailed geological–structural and geomorphological surveys with available literature data. Based on this evolutionary model, a multistage numerical modelling using the finite difference method code FLAC 6.0 has been performed in order to: (i) evaluate the effect of the uplift-related morphological changes of the valley–slope system; and (ii) assess the role of the horizontal/vertical stress ratio variations due to geodynamic regime shifts. The results of the numerical model show a good fit with the actual geomorphical evidence and also confirm the presence during some evolutionary stages of stress–strain conditions compatible with those necessary to produce the massive rock slope failures testified by the presence of large palaeo-landslide deposits.