Infrastructure Risk Analysis of Municipal Water Distribution System

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present an application of the infrastructure risk analysis model to a small municipality. The paper begins by decomposing the water system along the dimensions of function, component, structure, state, and vulnerability, while considering other perspectives such as political, temporal, threat, and economic. Component vulnerability is subjectively assessed in terms of exposure and access. Based on vulnerability analysis and expert opinion, a willfull water contamination attack scenario is developed and then modeled using an event tree. Expected and extreme risk are then measured using exceedence probability. Lastly, alternatives are generated and the results are presented in a multiobjective framework. The methodological framework presented can easily be applied to other critical infrastructure elements and networks.