The Journal of Psychology · 1987 · 35 citations · 20 references
BusinessBehavioral SciencesPsychologyDecision AnalysisDecision MakingDecision TheoryBehavioral Decision-makingDecision Under UncertaintyDecision-making ModelsNormative InterpretationReasoned Decision-makingBase Rate EstimationBase Rate UseInferential Language SkillsInferential ProcessingNormative Decision TheoryNormative JudgmentsNormative ReasoningRational Decision-making
The study highlights three limitations of normative decision research: unclear base‑rate relevance, mismatches between natural language and formal logic, and individual variation in strategies that may preclude a single optimal solution. The paper aims to identify three concerns that limit the implications of normative decision research. The authors propose a more functional approach to decision interpretation to address these limitations.
Abstract Three concerns that limit the implications of normative decision research were described in this study. First, because there is no unequivocal way to determine whether any particular base rate is appropriate in a particular instance, the significance of the apparent base rate underutilization reported by a number of investigators is unclear. Second, because there are discrepancies between natural language and formal logic, word problems are an uncertain domain within which to gauge human inferential skills. Third, because different people will have different strategies and preferences, no single solution may be correct or optimal for all persons. In light of these limitations, a more functional approach to decision interpretation is discussed.
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