Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations

Abstract

The potential of monetary policy to stabilize fluctuations in output and employment is demonstrated in a stochastic rational expectations model in which firms choose, considering average profitability, to set prices in advance of the period when they apply to goods sold. This lead time in pricing decisions increases the fluctuations of output about the normal employment level. But proper use of a feedback monetary policy rule can reduce these fluctuations even though expectations are rational and people know the policy rule. It is noted that use of a rule-dictated policy sometimes requires the monetary authorities to penalize the economy in the short run for the sake of beneficial system effects of the rule upon the relevant steady-state distributions.