Majority Votes and the Business Cycle

Abstract

Political opinion is guided by the belief that elections occurring in good business years result in a demonstration of confidence in the party in power, while elections occurring in depression years tend to turn the majority party out of office. A correlation of the vote given to the party in power in about one hundred federal congressional districts with selected poinst on the business cycle shows that when an election follows a business expansion the party in power will receive a greater proportion of the vote than when an election occurs in a period of severe business depression. While the study substantiates political opinion, it also shows quite clearly that there will always be a relatively large number of election districts that are apparently not affected by changing business conditions.