Long-Term Forecasting of Anesthesia Workload in Operating Rooms from Changes in a Hospital’s Local Population Can Be Inaccurate

Abstract

Although growth of the elderly population is a simple justification for building more ORs, managers should be cautious in arguing for strategic changes in capacity at individual hospitals based on future changes in the national age-adjusted population. Local population can provide little value in forecasting future anesthesia workloads at individual hospitals. In addition, anesthesia groups and hospital administrators should not focus on quarterly changes in workload, because workload can vary widely, despite consistent patterns over decades. To facilitate long-range planning, anesthesia groups and hospitals should save their billing and OR time data, display it graphically over years, and supplement with corresponding forecasting methods (e.g., staff an additional OR when an upper prediction bound of workload per OR exceeds a threshold).