The Determinants of State Legitimacy: Results for 72 Countries

TLDR

The study investigates causal determinants of state legitimacy across 72 countries, representing 83 % of the global population. Using survey and expert data, the authors develop and test major legitimacy theories, selecting three key variables—good governance, democratic rights, and welfare gains—and validate the theory with 31 income‑matched country pairs. The analysis reveals a significant positive correlation between state performance and legitimacy in these matched pairs, supporting the proposed causal framework.

Abstract

This article examines a range of potential causal variables of state legitimacy using a globally representative set of 72 countries accounting for 83 percent of the world’s population. Major theories of legitimacy determinants are advanced and tested using survey and expert data. Three variables (which measure good governance, democratic rights, and welfare gains) are then chosen from among all strongly correlated variables as being the most plausible basis for a causal theory. The theory is then further tested using 31 pairs of countries with similar income levels and in similar regions, which shows a significant positive correlation between performance and legitimacy. The article concludes with suggestions for further research.