Glacier change and climate forcing in recent decades at Gran Campo Nevado, southernmost Patagonia

Abstract

Abstract Digital terrain models of the southern Chilean ice cap Gran Campo Nevado reflecting the terrain situations of the years 1984 and 2000 were compared in order to obtain the volumetric glacier changes that had occurred during this period. The result shows a slightly negative mean glacier change of 3.80 m. The outlet glacier tongues show a massive thinning, whereas the centre of the ice cap is characterized by a moderate thickening. Thus a distinct altitudinal variability of the glacier change is noticed. Hypothetically this could be explained by the combined effects of increased precipitation and increased mean annual air temperature. Both to verify and to quantify this pattern of climatic change, the mean glacier change as well as its hypsometric variation are compared with the results of a degree-day model. The observed volumetric glacier change is traced back to possible climate forcing and can be linked to an underlying climate change that must be comparable with the effects of a precipitation offset of at least 7–8% and a temperature offset of around 0.3 K compared to the steady-state conditions in the period 1984–2000.