Quantitative meanings of verbal probability expressions.

Abstract

The meanings of 18 verbal probability expressions were studied in 3 ways: (a) frequency distributions of what single number best represented each expression; (b) word-to-number acceptability functions from what range of numbers from 0% to 100% best represented each expression; and (c) number-to-word acceptability functions from which expressions were appropriate for multiples of 5% from 5% to 95%. These results agreed highly with others and were highly consistent across methods. Expressions incorporating the stem probable were quantitatively synonymous with expressions incorporating the stem likely. Except for expressions using the word chance, positive expressions (e.g., likely) were closer to 50% in meaning than corresponding negative expressions (e.g., unlikely). This method proved very useful in deriving fuzzy-set membership functions for probability words, encouraging us in our ongoing codification effort.