Forecasting power output of photovoltaic system based on weather classification and support vector machine

Abstract

Due to the growing demand on renewable energy, photovoltaic (PV) generation systems have increased considerably in recent years. However, the power output of PV systems is affected by different weather conditions. Accurate forecasting of PV power output is important for the system reliability and promoting large scale PV deployment. This paper proposes algorithms to forecast power output of PV systems based upon weather classification and support vector machine. In the process, the weather conditions are firstly divided into four types which are clear sky, cloudy day, foggy and rainy day. One-day-ahead PV power output forecasting model for single station is derived based on the weather forecasting data and historically actual power output data as well as the principle of Support Vector Machine (SVM). After applying it into a PV station in China (the capability is 20 kW), results show the proposed forecasting model for grid-connected photovoltaic systems is effective and promising.