A Probability Method for Determining the Reliability of Electric Power Systems

Abstract

Reliability measures how well a system can be expected to perform its intended purpose; it is expressed as a probability function with time and environment as variables. This paper discusses the mechanics of component failure and repair and shows that power system behavior follows a Markov process. The reliability of simple system configurations is evaluated analytically by solving the Markov equations. The reliability of complex systems is more easily evaluated by the use of digital computer simulation. The simulation method is described.