On the uses of expert judgment on complex technical problems

Abstract

The authors place in perspective the role and uses of expert judgment in examining complex technical and engineering problems. Specifically, they indicate how expert judgements are usually used in analyzing technical problems, how to improve the use of expert judgments, and how to interpret judgments in analysis. The value of quantifying expert judgments to complement the expert's qualitative thinking and reasoning is stressed. The relationships between procedures to quantify judgments and the general principles of engineering are discussed.< <ETX xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">&gt;</ETX>