U.S. Strategic Intelligence Forecasting and the Perils of Prediction

Abstract

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Additional informationNotes on contributorsBowman H. MillerDr. Bowman H. Miller, a former Director of Analysis for Europe in the United States Department of State, is currently a member of the Graduate Faculty of the U.S. National Intelligence University, Washington, D.C. From 1987–2005 he was Director of Analysis for Europe in the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR). Dr. Miller earned his Ph.D. at Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. The views expressed here are solely those of the author and do not represent the policies or view of the U.S. Intelligence Community, the National Intelligence University, or any other component of the U.S. government. An earlier version of this article was presented at the University of Paris/Sciences-Po/CERI conference "Predictions for International Security: The Knowledge–Practice Enigma," Paris, France, 16 March 2012.