Looking for Mr. Right? A Comparative Analysis of Parties’ ‘Coalition Statements’ prior to the Federal Elections of 2005 and 2009

Abstract

Although literature on the topic of coalition formation has become nearly unmanageable and although parties' preferences are always at the centre of related theories, the preferences uttered by parties themselves (‘coalition signals’) have hardly played a role so far. A symptom of this neglect is the absence of a notional equivalent of the German ‘Koalitionsaussage’ in the English language. The recently introduced concept of ‘pre-electoral coalitions’ only seemingly offers a more precise description of the matter in question. The article explores the concept of coalition signals, offers a categorisation and discusses possible extensions. The effects of coalition signals on voter behaviour and party strategy are considered. This is followed by a comparison of the coalition signals given by German parties prior to the Bundestag elections 2005 and 2009. A new measure for the acceptance of different coalition alternatives in the electorate is suggested.