Has China passed the Lewis turning point? A structural estimation based on provincial data

Abstract

Using provincial data for the period 1998–2007, this paper estimates the supply and demand functions of migrant workers in each year for a typical Chinese province in a structural framework that explicitly takes into account the Lewis turning point (LTP) in the supply function. The results are extrapolated to the national level and the turning point and the equilibrium level of migrant employment are both estimated for each year. The comparison of those two estimates shows that China has not passed the Lewis turning point.