A note on portraying the accuracy of violence predictions.

Abstract

We discuss two major reviews of the accuracy of dichotomous (yes/no) violence predictions (Monahan, 1981; Otto, 1992), which reported rates offalse positive errors that were calculated using conceptually and mathematically dissimilar methods. We outline potential problems that result from analyzing data in the form of 2×2 contingency tables and offer some recommendations for future research on the prediction of violence.