Prediction of Stone Composition from Plain Radiographs: A Prospective Study*

TLDR

Stone composition visible on radiographs guides treatment choice, yet physicians’ ability to predict it has not been adequately assessed. The study aimed to quantify how accurately a panel of stone‑disease specialists could classify stone composition from plain radiographs. Six specialists (two urologists, two radiologists, two nephrologists) reviewed 100 radiographs of known‑composition renal stones, scoring a guess as correct if it matched at least 40% of the stone, yielding an average 39% correct rate; stone size distribution was 35% < 1 cm and 65% ≥ 1 cm. Accuracy did not improve with stone size or purity, calcium phosphate was the most misclassified type (only 14% correct), and overall physicians correctly identified stone composition less than half the time without clinical data.

Abstract

Stone composition, as reflected in radiographic appearance, is important to help choose between SWL and percutaneous/endoscopic procedures. Predicting a stone's composition accurately from a plain radiograph would be a useful tool in clinical decision-making. However, the ability of physicians to predict composition has not been adequately assessed. A prospective study was designed to quantify the accuracy of a panel of physicians who routinely deal with stones in classifying stone composition solely from radiographs.A panel of six members was created to review 100 plain-film radiographs from patients with renal stones of known composition. The panel consisted of two urologists, two radiologists, and two nephrologists, all of whom have expertise in stone disease. If the composition guessed was at least 40% of the total stone composition, the response was deemed correct.Overall, there was an average 39% correct response score among the six panelists. When the stones were divided by size, 35% were <1 cm, and 65% were larger. The accuracy of chemical composition determination did not improve with greater stone size, nor was there a difference in accuracy for pure and mixed stones. The most frequently misclassified stone was calcium phosphate, with only 14% being correctly diagnosed.With a random sampling of plain radiographs, a panel of physicians specializing in stone disease correctly diagnosed the composition of renal calculi less than half of the time without being given clinical information.