Characterizing Mental Models of Hazardous Processes: A Methodology and an Application to Radon

TLDR

Public response to environmental hazards depends partly on understanding the underlying physical, chemical, and biological processes. The study proposes a general methodology to characterize people’s mental models of hazards, i.e., the principles they use to predict hazard behavior. The methodology uses a network representation of expert knowledge to map hazard concepts relevant to risk management, and is illustrated through interviews on radon risks. The findings suggest that this approach can improve measurement, prediction, and public understanding of environmental hazards.

Abstract

Lay people's ability to respond to an environmental hazard is determined, in part, by their understanding of the physical, chemical, and biological processes that govern its creation and control. A general methodology is offered here for studying that understanding. It attempts to characterize people's mental models of a hazard—i.e., the sets of principles from which they generate predictions about its behavior. The organizing device for this methodology is a network representation of expert knowledge about the hazard, emphasizing concepts relevant to risk management. This methodology is illustrated here with a set of interviews about the risks of radon. The results have implications for measuring, predicting, and aiding the public's understanding of environmental hazards.